Titel:
Ny metode for beregning av effekten av fartsreduserende tiltak-eksempel SATK

Abstract:
The exponential model is used to estimate accident reduction as a consequence of speed reduction. The well-known Power model proposes that a given per cent reduction in mean speed gives a certain expected pro cent reduction in accidents, regardless of the initial mean speed. The exponential model claims that a nominal reduction in mean speed gives a certain expected pro cent reduction in accidents, also regardless of the initial mean speed.
The exponential model has multiplicative properties, which the Power model does not have. This enables us to factorize the total relative risk of the speed distribution into risk attributions from each interval. Further the risk attribution from an interval equals the relative risk of that interval, “weighted” by raising it to a certain power, namely the relative number of measurements in the interval.
This proves to be a very convenient relationship when studying the effects of speed reducing measures, the Norwegian “speed section control” being an example. It gives us more information about risk and it makes us capable of producing more to the point criteria regarding when speed reducing strategies should be implemented. Examples are given.

Forfatter:
Svenn Fjeld Olsen, Statens vegvesen, Vegdirektoratet

Danske Keywords:
eksponentialmodellen, Power modellen, ulykkesreduksjon, fartsreduksjon, multiplikative risikobidrag, fartsfordeling, fartsreduserende tiltak, SATK

Engelske Keywords:
exponential model, Power model, accident reduction, speed reduction, multiplicative attributable risk, speed distribution, speed reduction measures, speed section control

År:
2013

Link: Hent paperet som PDF-fil