Titel:
Infrastructure and spatial effects on the frequency of cyclist-motorist collisions in the Copenhagen region

Abstract:
Promoting cycling aims at reducing congestion and pollution and encouraging healthy and sustainable lifestyles, but generally clashes with the perception of crash risk while riding a bicycle that is still the most significant disincentive to cycling. The current study analyzed the factors contributing to increase crash risk while riding a bicycle by focusing on the variation of 5349 cyclist-motorist collisions within 269 traffic zones in the Copenhagen Region. The model controlled for traffic exposure for both bicycles and motorized transport modes, evaluated the effects of infrastructure and socio-economic characteristics of the zones, and accounted for heterogeneity and spatial correlation across the zones. A Poisson-lognormal model with second-order CAR priors confirmed the existence of the safety in numbers phenomenon, contradicted previous literature about bicycle facilities not being helpful in reducing crash risk, highlighted the need for Copenhagen-style bicycle paths especially in suburban areas, and emphasized how heterogeneity and spatial correlation play a significant role in explaining the probability of cyclist-motorist crash occurrence.

Forfatter:
Carlo G. Prato, DTU Transport Sigal Kaplan, DTU Transport Thomas K. Rasmussen, DTU Transport Tove Hels, DTU Transport

Danske Keywords:
cyklist-bilist krak; frekvens modellering; geografisk korrelation; heterogenitet; Bayesiansk estimation

Engelske Keywords:
cyclist-motorist crashes; frequency model; spatial correlation; heterogeneity; Bayesian estimation

År:
2014

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