Abstract:
The paper presents a submodel to the model complex ALTRANS (ALternative
TRANSport systems). The model is thoroughly described in Kveiborg (1999).
The
Altrans model is a model developed for analysing the transport consequences
of
different policy proposals. The model is based on the transport behaviour
of
individuals in Denmark, and give among other things estimates of traffic
performance
by mode, and car ownership. The model presented here uses this information
to
calculate the energy consumption and the emissions stemming from the
transport in
cars. The paper includes a brief presentation of the overall model
complex, and a
slightly more thorough analysis of the historical development of the
Danish car fleet.
This development forms the basis for the model development. The general
idea of the
model and estimation results are discussed. Generally speaking the
development in the
car fleet is composed of three parts: the existing fleet, the purchase
of new cars and the
scrappage of old cars. The development is split into different groups
of vehicles based
on the age, weight and the type of fuel usage of the cars. Different
exogenous variables
are used in explaining the developments in both purchase and scrappage
rates.
Splitting the developments into these different groups makes it possible
to calculate the
energy consumption more accurately.
Forfatter:
Forskningsassistent Ole Kveiborg, Afdeling for Systemanalyse, DMU
Keywords – dansk:
Bilpark sammensætning, prognose, model, Altrans, brændstofforbrug
Keywords – engelsk:
Composition of car fleet, forecast, model, Altrans, fuel consumption
Session:
Linie 1: Samfundsøkonomiske modeller, Session: Priser og adfærd.
År:
1999